考虑极端场景与条件风险价值的氢储能容量配置方法
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1. 新能源电力系统全国重点实验室 (华北电力大学),河北 保定 071003;2. 河北省分布式储能与微网重点实验室,河北 保定 071003

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国家自然科学基金项目资助 (52307098);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助 (2025MS112);河北省研究生专业学位教学案例 (库) 项目资助 (KCJSZ 2025113)


A capacity planning method for hydrogen energy storage incorporating extreme scenarios and conditional value at risk
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1. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System (North China Electric Power University), Baoding 071003, China; 2. Hebei Key Laboratory of Distributed Energy Storage and Micro-Grid, Baoding 071003, China

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    摘要:

    近年来,极端天气频发加剧了电力系统的运行风险。为保障极端天气下电力系统的持续供电能力,提出一种考虑极端场景的计及尾部风险的氢储能设备规划方法。首先,分析新能源出力与各类气象因子的相关性,基于 K - 多维时间序列聚类算法生成新能源出力典型场景和极端场景。其次,考虑质子交换膜电解槽的动态效率特性,建立电解槽阵列的轮值策略,构建氢储能设备数学模型。然后,提出一种基于条件风险价值 (conditional value at risk, CVaR) 的极端风险评估与量化方法,以系统总成本最小为目标,构建兼顾典型场景和极端场景的氢储能容量配置模型。最后,算例分析结果表明,所提模型能够优化系统的配置方案,保证新型电力系统在极端场景下的安全稳定运行。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has significantly exacerbated the operational risks of power systems. To enhance the resilience and continuous power supply capability of power systems under extreme weather conditions, this paper proposes a hydrogen energy storage planning method that incorporates extreme scenarios and tail-risk assessment. First, the correlations between renewable energy outputs and various meteorological factors are analyzed, and representative typical and extreme renewable energy output scenarios are generated using a K-based multidimensional time series clustering algorithm. Second, considering the dynamic efficiency characteristics of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, a rotation-based operating strategy for electrolyzer arrays is developed, and a comprehensive mathematical model of the hydrogen energy storage system is established. Then, a tail-risk assessment and quantification approach based on conditional value at risk (CVaR) is introduced. Taking the minimization of the total system cost as the optimization objective, a hydrogen energy storage capacity planning model that simultaneously incorporates both typical and extreme scenarios is formulated. Finally, numerical case studies demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively optimize the system configuration scheme and ensure the safe and stable operation of new-type power systems under extreme scenarios.

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李志,杜晓颖,王佳凯,等.考虑极端场景与条件风险价值的氢储能容量配置方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(16):81-92.[LI Zhiwei, DU Xiaoying, WANG Jiakai, et al. A capacity planning method for hydrogen energy storage incorporating extreme scenarios and conditional value at risk[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(16):81-92]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-14
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