基于峰谷结构特征与sLSTM的短期负荷预测方法
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西南科技大学信息与控制工程学院,四川 绵阳 621010

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西藏自治区科技计划项目资助(XZ202501YD0008)


Short-term load forecasting based on peak-valley structural features and sLSTM
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School of Information and Control Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China

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    摘要:

    针对现有短期负荷预测方法在负荷波动性增强背景下,对负荷序列中峰谷等结构性转折特征刻画不足,导致负荷曲线峰谷转折时刻预测精度不高的问题,提出一种考虑峰谷结构特征与标量长短期记忆网络(scalar long short-term memory, sLSTM)的短期负荷预测方法。首先,从历史负荷序列中提取局部极值信息,构建峰谷状态标签、发生概率及时间距离等结构化特征,捕捉负荷变化的关键转折规律。然后,引入sLSTM搭建多任务共享编码层,提升对负荷突变特性与长期依赖关系的联合建模能力。同时构建峰-平-谷三分类辅助任务,与负荷预测主任务形成多任务协同优化框架。最后,以我国某地区公开的2013至2014年电力负荷数据为例进行仿真验证。结果表明,所提方法在不同日期类型下的负荷预测精度均有所提升,并且有效增强了峰谷时段的预测效果。

    Abstract:

    Under increasingly volatile load conditions, existing short-term load forecasting methods exhibit limited capability in characterizing structural turning features in load sequences, such as peaks and valleys, resulting in degraded prediction accuracy at peak-valley transition moments. To address this issue, a short-term load forecasting method that incorporates peak-valley structural features and a scalar long short-term memory (sLSTM) network is proposed. First, local extrema are extracted from historical load series to construct structured features, including peak-valley state labels, occurrence probabilities, and temporal distances, enabling effective capture of key load transition patterns. Then, an sLSTM is introduced to design a multi-task shared encoding layer, so as to improve the joint modeling capability for load abrupt characteristics and long-term temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, a peak-flat-valley three-classification auxiliary task is constructed to form a multi-task collaborative optimization framework together with the primary load forecasting task. Finally, simulation verification is carried out using publicly available power load data from 2013 to 2014 in a region in China. The results show that the proposed method consistently improves the load forecasting accuracy across different day types while significantly enhancing the prediction effect during peak and valley periods.

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李鹏飞,马 强,杨 震.基于峰谷结构特征与sLSTM的短期负荷预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(16):24-35.[LI Pengfei, MA Qiang, YANG Zhen. Short-term load forecasting based on peak-valley structural features and sLSTM[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(16):24-35]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-06
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-14
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