计及台风暴雨复合气候条件的电力系统大停电风险评估
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华北电力大学电力工程系,河北 保定 071003

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国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52007092)


Power system blackout risk assessment considering compound typhoon-rainstorm conditions
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Department of Electrical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China

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    摘要:

    为评估台风暴雨复合极端事件对电力系统的大停电风险,提出一种计及复合气候条件的风险评估方法。首先,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging, BMA)融合多候选边缘分布,并结合Copula函数构建小样本鲁棒的风雨联合概率模型,以联合重现期为约束并利用高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model, GMM)聚类生成3类典型场景。其次,建立气候敏感的多类型源荷模型,刻画极端气候下风光水出力受阻与气象负荷变动的协同响应。最后,结合设备脆弱性与连锁故障仿真,构建融合停电后果与年发生概率的多维度大停电风险指标体系。仿真结果表明,强风型场景风险显著高于其他类型,中等强度高频次事件年期望风险最高,其长期风险贡献不容忽视。该方法能有效量化不同复合场景的差异化风险水平,为沿海电力系统防灾规划提供定量依据。

    Abstract:

    To evaluate power system large-scale blackout risks under compound typhoon-rainstorm events, a risk assessment method that explicitly considers compound climate conditions is proposed. First, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is employed to integrate multiple candidate marginal distributions. Combined with Copula functions, a robust wind-rain joint probability model for small samples is constructed. Constrained by the joint return period, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is further adopted to cluster and generate three representative compound climate scenarios. Second, a climate-sensitive multi-type source-load model is developed to characterize the coordinated responses of restricted wind-solar-hydro power outputs and meteorological load variations. Finally, a multi-dimensional blackout risk index system is formulated by integrating equipment vulnerability models with cascading failure simulations, incorporating outage consequences and annual occurrence probabilities. Simulation results show that the strong-wind scenario poses a significantly higher blackout risk than the other scenarios, while moderate-intensity but high-frequency events yield the highest annual expected risk, highlighting their long-term risk contribution. The proposed method effectively quantifies the differentiated compound-scenario risks and provides a quantitative basis for coastal power grid disaster prevention planning.

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程一诺,任 惠,高倩盈,等.计及台风暴雨复合气候条件的电力系统大停电风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(16):1-12.[CHENG Yinuo, REN Hui, GAO Qianying, et al. Power system blackout risk assessment considering compound typhoon-rainstorm conditions[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(16):1-12]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-14
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