考虑三参量退化耦合关联信息的变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法
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1. 现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室 (东北电力大学),吉林 吉林 132012;2. 华北电力大学新能源电力系统全国重点实验室,河北 保定 071003

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国家重点专项资助 (2025YFE0106200);新能源电力系统全国重点实验室 2025 年开放课题 (LAPS25014)


Remaining life prediction method for transformer oil-paper insulation considering three-parameter degradation coupling correlation information
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1. Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education (Northeast Electric Power University), Jilin 132012, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Resources (North China Electric Power University), Baoding 071003, China

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    摘要:

    针对传统绝缘寿命预测方法缺乏考虑多退化参量间耦合关联信息导致预测精度不足的问题,为充分挖掘参量间耦合关联信息对油纸绝缘退化特性的刻画能力,提出一种基于三维 C-vine Copula 函数的变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法。首先,构建基于非线性 Wiener 过程的单参量油纸绝缘退化模型,描述油纸绝缘退化行为的不确定性和非线性特征。然后,基于三维 C-vine Copula 函数结构构建油纸绝缘的三参量联合概率分布模型,挖掘多参量耦合关联信息中隐匿的退化特征,对退化轨迹进行精确刻画。最后,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛 - 吉布斯 (Markov chain Monte Carlo-Gibbs, MCMC-Gibbs) 抽样算法估计模型中的未知参数,实现变压器油纸绝缘的剩余寿命预测。选取糠醛、甲醇和 5 - 羟甲基糠醛作为绝缘退化参量,分别估计参量间各自独立与三参量相互耦合条件下的可靠度,并对比剩余寿命预测结果。结果表明所提方法能更准确地预测油纸绝缘的剩余寿命。

    Abstract:

    To address the insufficient prediction accuracy of traditional insulation lifetime prediction methods caused by the neglect of coupling correlation information among multiple degradation parameters, this paper proposes a remaining life prediction method for transformer oil-paper insulation based on the three-dimensional C-vine Copula function, aiming to fully explore the capability of coupling correlation information among degradation parameters in characterizing insulation degradation behavior. First, a single-parameter degradation model of oil-paper insulation is constructed using a nonlinear Wiener process to capture the uncertainty and nonlinear characteristics inherent in the degradation behavior of oil-paper insulation. Second, a three-parameter joint probability distribution model for oil-paper insulation is developed based on the three-dimensional C-vine Copula function structure. This model extracts the latent degradation features embedded in the coupling correlation information of multiple parameters and enables precise characterization of the degradation trajectory. Finally, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Gibbs sampling algorithm is employed to estimate the unknown parameters of the model, thereby achieving the remaining life prediction of transformer oil-paper insulation. Furfural, methanol, and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural are selected as insulation degradation parameters, and the reliability under both independent-parameter conditions and three-parameter coupled conditions is evaluated. The corresponding remaining life predictions are compared and analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the remaining service life of oil-impregnated paper insulation.

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杨冬锋,刘彦泽,曲岳晗,等.考虑三参量退化耦合关联信息的变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(15):35-47.[YANG Dongfeng, LIU Yanze, QU Yuehan, et al. Remaining life prediction method for transformer oil-paper insulation considering three-parameter degradation coupling correlation information[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(15):35-47]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-04
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-27
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