Abstract:According to the stochastic and intermittent natures of wind turbines, a time sequential multi-state generator model corresponding to wind farm is presented in power system probabilistic production simulation. In the model, the research period is divided into different stages, and in each stage the wind output power state and its probability are related to time interval. The smaller the time interval is, the more wind data are recorded, so that the model reflects the fluctuation of the wind power effectively. In different stages, due to the difference of wind speed, the wind output power state numbers, state values and the corresponding probability of wind output power states are different, so that the model reflects sequential characteristic of the wind power effectively. Power system probabilistic production simulation, based on equivalent energy function method, shows that the proposed model can simulate wind power practically.