基于连锁故障事故链搜索的输电网风险评估研究

孙启明; 石立宝; 司大军; 朱继忠

引用本文:	孙启明,石立宝,司大军,等.基于连锁故障事故链搜索的输电网风险评估研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(19):27-34.
	SUN Qiming,SHI Libao,SI Dajun,et al.Study on the risk assessment for transmission network based on failure chain search[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(19):27-34

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基于连锁故障事故链搜索的输电网风险评估研究
孙启明¹,石立宝¹,司大军²,朱继忠³
(1.清华大学深圳研究生院(电力系统国家重点实验室深圳研究室)，深圳518055;2.云南电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心，云南昆明650011;3.南方电网科学研究院，广东广州 510080)

摘要:

针对传统风险评估所使用方法的局限性并考虑到电网实际需求，提出了一种基于连锁故障事故链搜索的输电网风险评估方法。在事故链搜索模型方面，提出了一系列改进措施，计及了多种故障类型，引入了暂态稳定、电压稳定、频率稳定以及系统解列等判据并匹配了实际系统的安稳措施。在风险评估模型方面，结合电网历史数据提出故障相关性因子以增强事故链概率的合理性。此外，还基于国务院599号令的打分方法提出并设计了风险指标，并最终开发出了应用于实际电网的风险评估系统。通过对中国某省实际电网的仿真，验证了所提方法的有效性和可靠性，同时得到了一些有意义的结论。

关键词: 连锁故障事故链搜索风险评估安稳措施

DOI：10.7667/PSPC201702

分类号:

基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB228203)

Study on the risk assessment for transmission network based on failure chain search

SUN Qiming¹,SHI Libao¹,SI Dajun²,ZHU Jizhong³

(1. National Key Laboratory of Power Systems in Shenzhen, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China;2. Research Centre of Power Grid Planning, Yunnan Power Grid Company, Kunming 650011, China;3. Electrical Power Research Institute, CSG, Guangzhou 510800, China)

Abstract:

Regarding the limitation of conventional solution pertinent to the risk assessment and the actual requirements of power grid, a risk assessment strategy based on failure chain search is proposed. For the modeling of failure chain search, some improvements including the consideration of multiple fault types, the introduction of transient stability, voltage stability, frequency stability and system splitting criteria with the match of emerging prevention and control measures are proposed. For modeling of risk assessment, a fault correlation factor combined with the historical data of power grid is proposed to enhance the feasibility of failure chain probability. Moreover, the corresponding risk indices based on the Decree No. 599 of the State Council are designed. The risk assessment system is designed and developed finally. Simulation results are performed on a real-sized power grid in China to verify the validity and reliability of the proposed method, and some meaningful conclusions are drawn. This work is supported by National Key Basic Research Development Program (No. 2013CB228203).

Key words: cascading failure failure chain search risk assessment system control measures

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