引用本文:胡文平,于腾凯,巫伟南.一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(5):35-42.
HU Wenping,YU Tengkai,WU Weinan.A comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(5):35-42
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一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法
胡文平1, 于腾凯1, 巫伟南2
1.国网河北省电力公司电力科学研究院，河北 石家庄 050021;2.武汉大学电气工程学院，湖北 武汉 430072
摘要:
电网综合风险评估能有效提高电网安全运行水平，为电力系统可靠运行提供安全保障。提出了一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法。将云理论应用于输变电设备故障不确定推理预测，构建基于条件云发生器的云语言预测规则，在此基础上提出了基于云推理的输变电设备故障率预测模型。同时，基于效用理论构建了一套包括电压越限、极限输送功率、潜在连锁故障和系统稳定指数的电网综合风险评估指标体系。该方法能够科学合理地对电网进行综合风险评估，扫描电网运行薄弱环节。结合某地区电网运行实际数据进行了计算分析，计算结果表明该方法有效且实用。
关键词:  正态云模型  不确定推理  故障率预测  效用理论  风险评估
DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2015.05.006
分类号:
基金项目:
A comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model
HU Wenping1, YU Tengkai1, WU Weinan2
1.State Grid Hebei Electric Power & Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;2.School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Abstract:
Comprehensive power grid risk assessments can effectively improve the management level and strengthen the security of power grid operation, to ensure reliable operation of the power system. This paper raises a comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model. First, the cloud theory is used in power transmission equipment failure prediction to build prediction rule based on cloud generator. On the basis of the prediction rule, a cloud-based power transmission equipment failure rate prediction model is built. And a power grid assessment system is raised based on utility theory, including over limited voltage index, limit transmission power index, potential cascading failure index, and system stability index. The assessment method could be used to estimate the comprehensive risk of power grid in order to scan the weakness in grid operation. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model is verified by an actual case.
Key words:  normal cloud model  uncertain reasoning  failure rate prediction  utility theory  comprehensive assessment
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