基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护装置老化失效率估算

薛安成; 罗麟; 景琦; 王俊豪; 宋璇坤; 刘颖; 李军; 黄少锋; 毕天姝

引用本文:	薛安成,罗麟,景琦,等.基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护装置老化失效率估算[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(24):72-78.
	XUE An-cheng,LUO Lin,JING Qi,et al.Research on aging failure rate estimation of protective relay based on three-parameter Weibull distribution[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(24):72-78

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基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护装置老化失效率估算
薛安成¹, 罗麟¹, 景琦¹, 王俊豪¹, 宋璇坤², 刘颖², 李军², 黄少锋¹, 毕天姝¹
1.新能源电力系统国家重点实验室（华北电力大学），北京 102206;2.国网北京经济技术研究院，北京 100052

摘要:

Weibull分布广泛用于元件失效分布拟合。与二参数相比，三参数的Weibull分布能够更好地模拟继电保护装置在投运初期不存在老化失效的特点。简要分析了继电保护装置失效特性，利用三参数Weibull分布特性，提出了一种基于最小二乘法和迭代法的继电保护装置老化失效率估算方法。结合某区域电网实际统计数据，计算了失效率函数，并将三参数Weibull拟合结果同二参数Weibull分布拟合结果进行对比。结果表明，基于三参数Weibull分布的时变失效率估算更符合继电保护装置的老化失效特性。

关键词: 继电保护装置可靠性时变失效率三参数Weibull分布最小二乘法

DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2014.24.012

分类号:

基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(863项目) (2012AA050208)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(51222703)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(12MS30)

Research on aging failure rate estimation of protective relay based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

XUE An-cheng¹, LUO Lin¹, JING Qi¹, WANG Jun-hao¹, SONG Xuan-kun², LIU Ying², LI Jun², HUANG Shao-feng¹, BI Tian-shu¹

1.State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;2.State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing 100052, China

Abstract:

Weibull distribution is widely used in component failure distribution fitting. Compared with two-parameter Weibull distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution does better in the situation that aging characteristics does not exist in protective relays at initial operation. This paper analyzes the failure characteristics of protective relay, and proposes a new fitting method for aging failure data of protective relay based on the least square method. Combined with some real grid data, the failure rate function is calculated. The calculation results shows that, compared with two-parameter, three-parameter Weibull distribution is more in line with the aging failure characteristics of protective relay.

Key words: protective relay reliability time-varying failure rate three-parameter Weibull distribution least square method

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